win-win bets — a new way of thinking about prediction markets

a way to achieve goals and distribute wealth using coordination

I’m thinking a lot about ways to do good using market mechanisms(Aka the opposite of assassination markets) , charity is not the way forward for most cases .

Coordination is the key — a proposal for how to make it , you need to connect between a few parameters :

• the willingness of someone to pay for such result
• measurable future state of the world
• Financial instruments that get the payment
• Action of someone to get there

An example : a public company (the financial instrument(3) ) that gets payment for each person that stopped smoking cigarettes ( the action(4) ) , from an insurance company or the government or a cigarette company (2) only after he will not smoke for 3 month .

The idea is to create coordination and to make a win win bet where the one that lost the bet actually wants to lose the bet because losing the bet helps him improve his goals and on the other hand , anyone can participate in this bet and help make it happen .

Let’s explore ,

1. Who would want to pay and for what :

• Plant based Meat companies would pay for people to stop eating meat. — improving its business
• Insurance companies will be interested to pay for each person to stop smoking . (less claims )
• Philip Morris would want to appear as a good company and would pay for people to stop smoking — from a PR perspective .

2. Measurable state : that one is the hardest one , which results can be measured :

• In order for such things to work it has to include mechanisms that are semi centralized .

3.What you measure: what is the objective of companies or governments

• For insurance companies — people that stop smoking and do unhealthy stuff
• For “bad companies” -(for pr purposes) how many people cured from their product — mcdonalds — obesity , philip morris — amount of people stop smoking , for drug companies — amount of people not using drugs etc.
• For exchanges and players in the crypto — amount of people holding a cryptocurrency .
• For “good companies “ like tesla (for achieving their goal ) — amount of people buying an electric car .

How you measure :

• There are things that are easier and things that are harder , to measure the amount of people that own a crypto is easier than measuring the amount of people that stopped eating sugar. I believe the formula needs to be a combination of a trusted party that makes the measurement with a way to decide if the goal was achieved .

4. Financial instruments that get the payment

The idea here is to create a smart contract or a public company that gets money into it every time something has happened . For example a company that gets 10$ from AIG for every person that stopped smoking and did a medical test , another example is ftx will pay if more then x people got into crypto within the next 12 month , another example is pension firms who will pay for each person that got hired .

Action of someone to get there

Now the interesting part , how we coordinate and make something happen .

One way is partnering with a partner that got the network effect and can make that happen.

• For the purpose of reducing unemployment — an online bootcamp for coding .
• For the purpose of purpose of getting more token holders — an investor community mod like wsb mod.

The other way is to empower the masses to do a small step themselves .

• Measure how many people find a job and give them a share of a “employment improvement company “
• Measure the amount of people that joined a protocol and give everyone that does it — a share of the prize.

In general there is a lot to do with coordination around solving problems where you have someone that is willing to pay for this result and people that can do something to help achieve it.

Ways to implement Win win bets :

• Ftx and wallstreet bets create a bet where ftx bet on there wont be more then 7m users of srm . if there will be they will pay 50mn$ .
• A general smart contract that lock eth in it and spreading the eth to a specific token holders , only if certain conditions were met .
• Create a contract with a 3rd party that have a measurable profit from an action , say an exchange , and then create a smart contract which the exchange is paying to every time a new user onboard to the exchange . the smart contracts then issue tokens that are shares of the profits in it .

Potential partners :

1. Venues to facilitate the bet : ftx\ prediction markets(polymarkets)
2. Who pays : protocols in crypto , insurance companies , token holders .